What is the longest it has taken the stock market to recover?
As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).
The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
The Dow Jones did not return to its peak close of September 3, 1929, for 25 years, until November 23, 1954.
The United Kingdom did not return to the same market level until May 1987 (only a few months before the Black Monday crash), whilst the United States did not see the same level in real terms until August 1993, over twenty years after the 1973–74 crash began.
Compared with the Stock Market Crash of 1929, which sparked the decade-long Great Depression, the markets recovered relatively quickly after the stock market crash of 1987, regaining their pre-crash heights within two years.
Not only are corrections more minor than crashes, but they are also more gradual, too. It typically takes five months to reach the “bottom” of a correction. However, once the market starts to turn, it can recover quickly. The average recovery time for a correction is just four months!
After peaking in March 2000, it took the Nasdaq 15 years to get back to that level.
Although the U.S. economy began to recover in the second quarter of 1933, the recovery largely stalled for most of 1934 and 1935. A more vigorous recovery commenced in late 1935 and continued into 1937, when a new depression occurred.
Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.
Coca-Cola , Archer-Daniels and Deere should like this history lesson. Even poor students of history know it never exactly repeats itself, but we all have been scratching the past for clues to guide us though the current harrowing times.
What is the longest bear market in history?
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
In terms of the overall decline in output and the rise in unemployment, the 1973-1975 recession was more severe than any of the five earlier reces- sions of the post-World War" period. But in terms of the reduction in employ- ment, it was relatively moderate.
| Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
|---|---|---|
| January 1973 to October 1974 | 21 months | -48% |
| November 1980 to August 1982 | 21 months | -27% |
| August 1987 to December 1987 | 4 months | -34% |
| July 1990 to October 1990 | 3 months | -20% |
Black Monday (also known as Black Tuesday in some parts of the world due to time zone differences) was the global, severe and largely unexpected stock market crash on Monday, October 19, 1987. Worldwide losses were estimated at US$1.71 trillion.
The worst 10 year annual return was a loss of almost 5% per year ending in the summer of 1939. That was bad enough for a 10 year total return of -40%.
The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500® generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
The market sees a greater than 80% chance of at least five rate cuts from current levels by the end of 2024. Investor optimism about the economic outlook has improved dramatically from a year ago, but there's still a risk that Fed policy tightening could tip the economy into a recession in 2024.
In the most extreme drop, it took 8 years for S&P 500 prices to recover after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, which was immediately followed by the crash of 2008. Following that crash, it took about 6 years for prices to recover to their previous all-time highs.
Has gold outperformed the Dow since 2000?
Gold has increased seven-fold since 2000. For the Dow industrials to have kept up, they should now be at 70,000, twice the current level. The correspondence with the economy was once again tight.
Elevated interest rates and inflation in the near term make stock selection crucial in the tech sector. Technology stocks have led the stock market to new all-time highs in 2024. In fact, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (ticker: XLK) has significantly outperformed the S&P 500's total return in the past 12 months.
The next Great Depression will start in 2030 and likely last through 2036. After this six-year period of economic decline, it will take roughly four years to fully climb up from that low point and get to where we were before the Great Depression began.
The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years.
The best performing investments during the Depression were government bonds (many corporations stopped paying interest on their bonds) and annuities.
