Currency Appreciation and impact on Inflation - Chain of Reasoning (2024)

In this short revision video we walk through an example of a chain of reasoning on the link between a currency appreciation and the rate of inflation in an economy. We add a little evaluation into the mix as well!

Question

Analyse how an appreciation in a nation’s currency can affect their inflation rate.

Chain of Analytical Reasoning

  • A currency appreciates inside a floating exchange rate system when the external value rise against other currencies.
  • One way this can impact on inflation is through a reduction in import prices.
  • Since most commodities are priced in US dollars, if for example, the Euro appreciates against the $, then prices of imported energy and raw materials & components into countries such as Spain will fall.
  • As a result, there will be an outward shift of short run aggregate supply (SRAS). Consequently, there is downward pressure on the general price level.
  • Thus, the annual rate of inflation may fall - this is known as disinflation.
  • In addition, a stronger currency makes exports less price competitive in overseas markets.
  • If export volumes contract, there will be a fall in AD, perhaps leading to a negative output gap and a fall in demand-pull inflationary pressures.

Supporting Analysis Diagram

Currency Appreciation and impact on Inflation - Chain of Reasoning (1)

Brief Evaluation Perspective

  1. The impact on inflation depends on the extent to which a country is highly dependent on imported raw materials & energy supplies
  2. The effect on inflation depends on PED for their exports – i.e. will there be a fall in X demand if overseas export prices rise?
  3. The exchange rate is not the only factor influencing the rate of inflation. External factors such as world commodity prices are important.
  4. It is possible that an appreciation in the exchange rate may make the Central Bank more willing to cut interest rates. Which in turn could increase demand-pull inflationary pressures.
Currency Appreciation and impact on Inflation - Chain of Reasoning (2024)

FAQs

Currency Appreciation and impact on Inflation - Chain of Reasoning? ›

Chain of Analytical Reasoning

How does appreciating currency affect inflation? ›

When the value of a currency changes, prices for goods traded using that currency can be affected. A currency appreciation (when the value increases over time) results in a lower effective price for imported goods; currency depreciation (when the value decreases over time) translates to higher import prices.

What is the relationship between inflation and currency? ›

In general, inflation tends to devalue a currency since inflation can be equated with a decrease in a currency's buying power. As a result, countries experiencing high inflation tend to also see their currencies weaken relative to other currencies.

Is currency appreciation good or bad? ›

As a consequence, currency depreciations and appreciations have political consequences. Currency appreciation benefits consumers, as it makes foreign goods cheaper, but it harms national producers who face greater competition with foreign producers. A depreciation has the opposite effect.

Can currency cause inflation? ›

' According to this view, the decline in the value of the dollar raises the dollar price of imported goods and, therefore, the prices paid by U.S. citizens as well. The con- sequence is inflation.

What are the five causes of inflation? ›

What causes inflation?
  • Demand-pull. The most common cause for a rise in prices is when more buyers want a product or service than the seller has available. ...
  • Cost-push. Sometimes prices rise because costs go up on the supply side of the equation. ...
  • Increased money supply. ...
  • Devaluation. ...
  • Rising wages. ...
  • Monetary and fiscal policies.
May 19, 2023

What causes an appreciation in currency? ›

Currency appreciation is an increase in the value of one currency in relation to another currency. Currencies appreciate against each other for a variety of reasons, including government policy, interest rates, trade balances, and business cycles.

What are the negatives of currency appreciation? ›

Disadvantages of Currency Appreciation
  • It can decrease in export demand.
  • Imports becoming cheaper can hurt domestic import-competing industries as local production costs are higher.
  • Appreciation reduces returns for foreign investors and discourages foreign capital inflows over time.
Oct 5, 2023

Who benefits and who loses when a country's currency appreciates? ›

On the one hand, if a currency appreciates, all of its imported goods get a lot cheaper. If a country tends to import a lot more goods than they export, then an appreciated currency might be desirable. But on the other hand, if a country relies heavily on exports, an appreciating currency isn't such a great thing.

Who benefits from a strong or appreciating dollar? ›

A strengthening dollar means U.S. consumers benefit from cheaper imports and less expensive foreign travel. U.S. companies that export or rely on global markets for the bulk of their sales are financially hurt when the dollar strengthens.

What is causing inflation right now? ›

As the labor market tightened during 2021 and 2022, core inflation rose as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment increased. This ratio is used to measure wage pressures that then pass through to the prices for goods and services.

How does money cause inflation? ›

To summarize, the money supply is important because if the money supply grows at a faster rate than the economy's ability to produce goods and services, then inflation will result. Also, a money supply that does not grow fast enough can lead to decreases in production, leading to increases in unemployment.

Who benefits from inflation? ›

Inflation allows borrowers to pay lenders back with money worth less than when it was originally borrowed, which benefits borrowers. When inflation causes higher prices, the demand for credit increases, raising interest rates, which benefits lenders.

Is inflation when the value of money increases? ›

The Bottom Line. Inflation occurs when prices rise in an economy and/or the purchasing power of money loses value.

How does raising interest rates affect inflation? ›

When the central bank increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. In this environment, both consumers and businesses might think twice about taking out loans for major purchases or investments. This slows down spending, typically lowering overall demand and hopefully reducing inflation.

What happens to the value of money if inflation is high? ›

Inflation is measured as a percentage: If the inflation rate is 1% (lower inflation), the purchasing power of money will be 1% less a year later. If the inflation rate is 5% (higher inflation), the purchasing power of money will be 5% less a year later.

What is the relationship between devaluation and inflation? ›

When a country decides to devalue their currency to make its goods and services cheaper, it can cause an increase in inflation. Inflation means that as the prices of goods and services rise, the value of a currency declines. The value of a currency is based on the goods and services that a country produces.

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